date: Wed Sep 15 16:18:03 2004
from: Phil Jones <REDACTED
subject: Re: Chap 3
This will be my last email this week. I'll check again on Saturday, then maybe next
but definitely Thurs/Fri next week.
Glad to hear that Jim is recovering well. Give me my best if you see him. Also good on
the jury duty !
The temperature trends would seem to be best (to me at least) as the knowns/unknowns/
unknowable will enable the others to see the thinking and how we have to get across
uncertainties. Need to keep us all focussed.
I'd let Susan go through the scoping material and we/you can pick up on the CAs etc.
I haven't prepared anything by the way. I have a number of talks on the lap top, but
as appropriate as yours.
Getting people we know and trust is vital - hence my comment about the tornadoes group.
I still favour Steve Warren on clouds, but there are a whole range of aspects to consider
Merging wind and waves is fine with me - should be a small section anyway.
I hope to get a few people involved within CRU (Tim Osborn, Malcolm Haylock), but some
are already involved in other chapters and being courted by WGII.
Have another (!) good week in Geneva !. I should arrive in Trieste on the Sunday
Staying with 2 others from CRU in Venice on the Saturday night.
At 15:37 15/09/2004, you wrote:
I was supposed to be on jury duty this week but I was excused after 5 hours,
thank goodness. Next week I am in Geneva at WCRP mtg and I go from there to
Trieste. So this week is all I have to prepare further.
I have several possible presentations to consider. One was the one I sent
you earlier based on the scoping material, although Susan may cover a lot of
that. One is a paper I gave last week where I was tasked to review
temperature trends: the known, the unknown and the unknowable.
The question is whether these might help get us on the same wavelength or
highlight disparate views. To the extent we can get on the same page, so
much the better.
I also have some draft material, adpated from last time, on letters to CAs
recruiting them to do the task required (to be sent by email). Question,
should the LA send these or us? It may carry more weight if we send them.
It may also give us more control.
Some thoughts follow.
On Wed, 15 Sep 2004, Phil Jones wrote:
> Here's a few thoughts. Not added any of this to the annotated outline.
> 3.2 and 3.3. We should talk to Dave Easterling and Tom Peterson about who
> might be involved from NCDC. I'm working with Russ Vose on a comparison
> of the NCDC/CRU/GISS
> land temperature datasets. Nor sure how many more in Asheville can get
Tom is on another chapter I believe. Dave is one of our LAs and so I think
will bring a lot of NCDC along with him, just as you will UEA and me NCAR.
> I'll talk to Mike Hulme here, but he's changed his research areas a lot
> in the last few years,
> so is much more WGII now.
> I'm at an Antarctic meeting tomorrow and Friday in Cambridge, so can ask
> John Turner or a
> colleague there. Might be useful re 3.6.5 or 3.9 but in all sections we
> are trying to get the
> large-scale picture, so bits on different continents are useful, but will
> need a lot of integration.
> There will be a paper on the latest Antarctic temp trends, so this can be
> referred to in 3.2.
> I'm involved in an EU project on the greater Alpine region. This has
> extensive analyses of many
> variables from the best observed mountaineous region. There are precip
> and temperature datasets
> going back to 1800. Also the Austrian group (Boehm, Auer at the NMS) have
> a paper on
> temp changes inferred from pressures at high and low elev sites in the
> region. It confirms the
> surface warming - could be a box in 3.2?
> I've emailed Adrian Simmons on another issue and asked him how much he
> would like to get
> involved. Need to add Peter Thorne toREDACTED
Co-ordination with the
> various US efforts essential.
> Tom Wigley tells me he's heavily involved in one of these.
> Clouds in 3.4.3 are a problem.
I have done a very preliminary review of literature on clouds. I can send to
you if you like? Liepert might be better there. Rossow also? But I don't
trust him. Norris has done a lot but I don't trust him either.
> For 3.5.3 I'm aware of an EU project which tried to look at this from
> pressure triangles. This
> could more likely go in 3.8.1. There is a lot of work on winds, to do
> with citing wind turbines,
> but hardly any of it looks at longer timescale changes (and certainly not
> on large scales).
I think we should probably merge 3.5.3 and 3.5.4 winds and waves.
> For 3.6 is Jim recovering? He will be very useful, if he can give us some
> time. We will need
> something in 3.6.6, even if small - Dave Gutzler. Noting a continuing
> problem - all my names
> are US, UK, OZ/NZ or western European.
Jim is now fine. He was knocked down for a few days. He had a seizure and
is not allowed to drive for 3 months. After that he may be allowed. That is
a major handicap as it takes him 1.5 hrs to commute each way by bus. In
evening he often gets a ride (he lives in Denver). But he is acting CGD
Director and has little free time.
Yes I am aware of the mostly western names.
> For 3.7, Neville Nicholls will be in Trieste for another chapter, He
> could suggest someone for
> Australia (Wasyl Drozdowsky springs to mind, but there will be others).
> For 3.8, there is the storm tracking work of Ian Simmonds. There is also
> some European
> work. Do we believe trends those based on Reanalyses? There is lots of
> much older work from
> Klein from the 1960s/1970s?
We have had a project on this at NCAR for some time. We have a lot of the
data, based on band passed stats. Needs to get written up. A fellow called
Edmund Chang (SUNY Stony Brook) has done some really good work on storm
tracks and spurious trends in NCEP.
> For 3.9 add Lisa Alexander for 126.96.36.199.
> Aiguo's work on PDSI may be useful for 188.8.131.52.
> For 184.108.40.206 there is Nikolai Dotzek who said he could do something on
> tornadoes and
> severe local weather events. No idea how good he is. Their web site
> has some links to work in Germanic countries. Tordach has a US page as
> well. Ever heard
> of this? Another person here is Rudolf Brazdil (Czech Rep.)
I'll add them for discussion.
> At 18:49 14/09/2004, you wrote:
> >I have attached the correced and slightly modified outline, and separately
> >the annoted one with a whole bunch of noew possible names for CAs or
> >contributions. Can you fill in some more: I hope we don't offend some of
> >LAs: maybe we should put them in more places?
> >The idea is to populate this somehow. Maybe I should not have filled them
> >in but kept them in reserve: cna still do that of course.
> >I see this as the main working document in Trieste.
> >Kevin E. TrenberthREDACTEDREDACTED
> >Climate Analysis Section, NCARREDACTED
> >P. O. Box 3000,REDACTEDREDACTED
(303) 497 1318
> >Boulder, COREDACTEDREDACTED
> >Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0)REDACTED
> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0)REDACTED
> University of East Anglia
> NR4 7TJ
Kevin E. TrenberthREDACTED
Climate Analysis Section, NCARREDACTED
P. O. Box 3000,REDACTEDREDACTED
(303) 497 1318
Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0)REDACTED
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0)REDACTED
University of East Anglia