To: "Keith Briffa" <REDACTED>
Subject: Re: ppt
Date: Thu, 1 Mar 2007 14:14:23 -0000 (GMT)
Here is the old version for you to compare with... the only noticeable
difference is for the URALS/YAMAL region, which previously had a higher
peak near 1000 AD. Although that was quite a big change, once you average
it with the other two series, the overall mean series shows very little
On Thu, March 1, 2007 1:57 pm, Keith Briffa wrote:
> am back and looking at this now
> At 12:23 01/03/2007, you wrote:
>>please see the attached PDF file. I've not yet put it into powerpoint,
>>because I wanted to check whether it matches what you want, or if you
>>fewer lines on it etc.
>>Each page is identical layout, for the 3 regions and then the 4th page is
>>for the average across all the data.
>>On each page you have the scatter graphs (and correlation) between the
>>unfiltered and the 10-year smoothed TRW and summer temperature. Plus the
>>3 calibration lines (our normal regression in black, variance matching in
>>orange, and inverting the regression of TRW onto temperature in brown),
>>thin lines between unfiltered data and thick lines between 10-year
>>smoothed data. The solid blue scatter plot points are those used in the
>>REDACTEDcalibration period, the blue circles with a cross in are from
>>outside the calibration period.
>>The top panels show the full 2000-yr reconstructions, with the line
>>and thickness coordinated to match the calibration lines in the bottom
>>panels. The only exception is that I have omitted the inverse regression
>>between unfiltered data (the line is shown dotted on the bottom left
>>panels), because this resulted in such huge variance that the curves went
>>way off the vertical scale!
>>In this top panel, all series, including the instrumental (blue), are
>>50-year smoothed. In the Scandinavian panel, there's also the longer
>>Tornedalen summer temperatures overlaid in green.
>>So... I can put each of these into a powerpoint slide.
>>Easily, I could also repeat them for a shorter period and less smoothing
>>(e.g. 1500-present with decadal smoothing, or 1800-present with no
>>I could also omit some of the curves if you think 5 reconstruction
>>alternatives per panel is too many.
>>With slightly more time, I could make it so that the powerpoint built up
>>with 1 alternative reconstruction at a time, until all 5 were there.
>>I'll call you soon and we can talk about it.
>>On Thu, March 1, 2007 10:17 am, Keith Briffa wrote:
>> > Hi Tim
>> > thanks
>> > I would be happy with only the usual regression but the plots with
>> > different timescales shown - for each and the average series would be
>> > great
>> > cheers
>> > Keith
>> > At 09:51 01/03/2007, you wrote:
>> >>Hi Keith -- I forgot to describe the contents of the PPT file I sent
>> >>yesterday. Basically it starts with a few comparisons of the modern
>> >>period between the MXD-based recons and the instrumental data.
>> >>First 3 show data only up to 1960.
>> >>(1) Full MXD reconstruction
>> >>(2) Masked MXD reconstruction (masked by availability of instrumental
>> >> temps)
>> >>(3) Masked temperatures (masked by availability of MXD)
>> >>All with 5-year filter
>> >>Then the same as above, except the next 3 show data up to 1995 to
>> >>illustrate the decline.
>> >>Then a couple more repeating the above, masked MXD then masked
>> >>temperature, but this time without any time-filtering, so you can see
>> >>individual warm and cold years.
>> >>Then finally the full MXD reconstruction back to 1400, but only up to
>> >> 1960.
>> >>I'm working from home today. I'll redo the calibrated northern
>> >>stuff -- do you want all the options again (i.e. forward and inverse
>> >>regression, variance matching, pre-/post-calibration averaging of the
>> >>regions, low and high pass filtering?).
>> >>Then we can make any final slides Friday morning if that's ok with
>> > --
>> > Professor Keith Briffa,
>> > Climatic Research Unit
>> > University of East Anglia
>> > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>> > Phone:REDACTED
>> > Fax:REDACTED
>> > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
> Professor Keith Briffa,
> Climatic Research Unit
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
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